London Retail Markets Q2 2024

Demand for retail space in London is gradually rebounding as we approach summer 2024. Recent months have seen a shift to positive net absorption after a challenging 2023, marked by stalled post-pandemic recovery amidst inflationary pressures and rising business costs. While London's retail vacancy rate has continued to climb, it remains below the national average.

The outlook for leasing is promising as London experienced its strongest quarter for retail take-up in two years during the first quarter of 2024, surpassing a quiet end to 2023 by 35%. Although leasing activity still lags behind pre-pandemic levels, growing retailer confidence mirrors a slowly improving economic forecast. Boosted by receding inflation and rising real wages, consumer confidence reached a two-year high in April 2024. Oxford Economics anticipates a modest 1.5% growth in retail sales for London this year, following a 1.6% contraction in 2023.

Certain segments of the market are outperforming, such as Bond Street attracting new luxury retailers, while Oxford Street's revival, particularly in its eastern section, continues to gain momentum. Consequently, prime rents on these key streets have seen upward adjustments after significant declines during the pandemic. Additionally, affluent residential areas like Chelsea and Knightsbridge are thriving, and retail parks outside central London have seen vacancy rates drop to a four-year low by the end of 2023.

Looking ahead, minimal new retail space is expected to be developed in the coming years, which should help stabilise the vacancy rate. The trend of converting retail spaces to alternative uses is likely to accelerate, with several department stores on Oxford Street already being partially converted into offices. Meanwhile, easing planning restrictions is anticipated to expedite the conversion of surplus retail space beyond central London.

Despite recent positive indicators, challenges persist. While footfall in the West End is gradually normalising with a 5% increase last year, it remains below pre-pandemic levels. The removal of tax-free shopping for international tourists has redirected luxury spending to other global cities like Paris and Milan. Moreover, the lingering cost-of-living squeeze continues to constrain consumer spending, especially outside prime locations. Retailers such as Boots, the Body Shop, and Ted Baker continue to close stores, creating vacancies on high streets.

The investment market remains subdued, with annual volumes of $1.9 billion well below the 10-year average of $3.1 billion. Softened pricing reflects investor caution amidst weak consumer spending and rising business costs, compounded by recent interest rate hikes dampening demand. However, supermarkets in outer London remain relatively popular investment targets.

Noteworthy transactions on Bond Street have provided some support to investment volumes, including Blackstone's acquisition of 130-134 New Bond Street for £227 million in April 2024. This transaction, at a 3.5% yield, underscores the area's resilience and potential for luxury retail development.

Looking forward, London's prime retail streets like New Bond Street are expected to see strengthening pricing, driven by anticipated rental increases. The market's resilience in these key locations is seen as a secure investment haven amidst broader economic uncertainties.

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