Hertfordshire Industrial Market Insights

Hertfordshire is a well-established industrial hub, attracting numerous companies to set up manufacturing, logistics, and storage facilities. The area's strong transport links to the North, the Midlands, and London via the M1 motorway, along with its relatively affluent and fast-growing population, have driven demand from logistics firms, online retailers, and delivery companies in recent years. Notable warehouse occupiers based in Hertfordshire include GSK and Ocado.

The industrial vacancy rate in Hertfordshire, currently at 5.1%, has risen significantly from a low of 1.5% in early 2020, largely due to several large tenants, including Amazon, vacating space. However, options for companies seeking large-scale warehouses remain limited, with Borehamwood Logistics Park being the only existing development able to accommodate tenant requirements exceeding 100,000 square feet. Foodservice logistics companies have been particularly active in leasing recently, with Brakes and Food Service Logistics both signing substantial deals in 2024.

Robust demand from occupiers has led to speculative development, particularly along the M1 corridor, with industrial stock in Hertfordshire increasing significantly over recent years to reach 55.6 million square feet. An average of 230,000 square feet has been delivered annually over the past five years, and a further 780,000 square feet is currently under construction. Recent notable developments include MX Maple Cross (177,000 square feet) in Rickmansworth and the 120,000-square-foot second phase of Hertford Logistics Hub in Hertford.

The tight vacancy rate and competition among tenants for available units have driven industrial rents in Hertfordshire steadily upwards in recent years. Although rent growth has slowed to 6.1% year-on-year, average warehouse rents now stand at around £14.50 per square foot, representing a 23.9% increase over the past three years. While CoStar's base case forecast suggests a slower pace of rental growth in the coming years, this outlook could be more optimistic given the strength of the local economy and Hertfordshire’s strategic location.

Industrial investment in Hertfordshire remains subdued, as it does across the UK, due to high interest rates and a lack of sellers willing to offload assets. Annual sales volumes currently stand at £118 million, a sharp decline from £391 million a few years ago, with a five-year average of £331 million. Average yields have stabilised over the past few quarters, reflecting sustained investor appetite for logistics properties in prime locations. At 5.5%, average industrial yields in Hertfordshire have expanded by approximately 100 basis points since early 2022, in line with the trend seen across the UK. Further yield expansion may occur in the short term, driven by forced sales of secondary warehouse assets.

One notable transaction in Q2 2024 was the acquisition of D25 in Waltham Cross by a joint venture between Tritax and Abrdn, which boosted investment volumes. The £54 million sale reflected a 4.8% yield and a capital rate of £285 per square foot. At the time of sale in April, the 190,000-square-foot facility, built in 1999, was let to The Delta Group. Earlier this year, Tritax Big Box REIT acquired Abrdn-managed UK Commercial Property REIT.

Another key deal over the past year was Aviva's acquisition of Centennial Park in Elstree for £37.5 million, driven by its strong transport connections and plans for significant residential development in the area. Centennial Park is a low-density business park, housing medical, science, and technology companies across 112,000 square feet on a 6.9-acre site.

As demand for cloud and digital services continues to grow, investors are taking advantage of favourable market conditions to increase their exposure to the sector. In Q3 2023, CapitaLand Ascendas REIT acquired The Chess Building in Watford from Digital Realty Trust for £125 million. The two-storey data centre, spanning over 90,000 square feet, was 80% let to five tenants at the time of sale in August. This acquisition marks the fifth server-hosting facility in the UK owned by the Singapore-listed trust.

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