Hertfordshire Office Market Insights Q3 2024

Hertfordshire contains approximately 27 million square feet of office space, the majority of which is situated in business parks. The county has traditionally benefited from its proximity and excellent transport links to London, attracting a range of national and multinational companies to base their headquarters here, particularly retailers such as Tesco, TK Maxx, and ASOS. Hertfordshire County Council is also a major occupier of office space.

The office vacancy rate in Hertfordshire has risen since reaching a record low of 1.9% at the start of the pandemic. A combination of companies downsizing their office space, weak leasing activity, and increased office completions has pushed the vacancy rate up to 8.2%, the highest in a decade. Historically, Hertfordshire’s vacancy rate has been around 200 basis points below the national average, but this gap has narrowed in recent times.

New and refurbished office space continues to attract environmentally conscious occupiers, even as overall demand remains subdued. Clarendon Works, Watford’s largest speculative office development, has been particularly successful. In the second quarter of 2024, National Lottery operator Allwyn pre-leased 63,500 square feet across six floors, following earlier lettings to tech firm Seiko Epson and flexible office provider YoooServ. Another notable letting in mid-2024 was Health Service Laboratories, which took 53,000 square feet at Building 7, Croxley Park, on a 16-year lease.

After several years of above-average growth, average office rents in Hertfordshire began to fall in 2019, with only modest growth since. Rents are expected to remain relatively stable over the next few years as new supply comes onto the market, amid continued subdued demand. However, prime office space is well-positioned to perform better, particularly in areas where such space is limited. In May 2024, Allwyn paid £45 per square foot at The Clarendon Works, Watford, while in March, Epson paid £40 per square foot at the same building.

Looking ahead, Hertfordshire’s office vacancy rate is expected to rise further in the coming months. However, improving demand, coupled with stronger job growth and limited new supply, is likely to bring vacancy rates back down, stabilising around 8% in line with CoStar’s Base Case scenario.

Office investment volumes in Hertfordshire have seen a slight increase in recent quarters but remain well below long-term averages, with many investors still cautious about the office sector post-pandemic. Over the past year, £136 million worth of office sales were recorded, compared to £104 million the previous year, and the 10-year rolling annual average of £273 million. High interest rates are expected to continue dampening transaction activity in the near term.

Corum’s acquisition of 40 Clarendon Road for £20.4 million, reflecting an 8.3% yield, boosted mid-2024 volumes. The building, extensively refurbished in 2020, is leased to three tenants, including professional services firm PwC, and had a weighted average unexpired lease term of 9.4 years at the time of its sale in June. The vendor, Columbia Threadneedle, stated the sale was part of a "strategic sell-down of office sector exposure." Paris-based Corum has been one of the regional office market’s most active buyers in recent years.

Earlier in 2024, Legal & General Investment Management paid a similar price for 10 Bricket Road in St Albans. The property, built in 2022, was purchased on behalf of BMW Pension Trustees for £20.6 million, representing a 7.3% yield. At the time of sale in February, it was let to Motor Fuel Group, St James’s Place, and Aecom, with 6,000 square feet of vacant space. The building, rated BREEAM Excellent, was likely purchased for its strong sustainability and well being credentials.

Owner-occupier purchases have also been a notable trend amid softer pricing. In May 2024, Affinity Water bought its headquarters at Hatfield Business Park from Railpen for around £18 million, having previously occupied the 125,000-square-foot building under a lease due to expire in 2025. Additionally, at the end of 2023, fashion supplier Poeticgem purchased a 30,000-square-foot building at 54 Clarendon Road from Canada Life for £8.4 million.

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