London Office Market Insights Q3 2024

London Office Market Report 

London’s office vacancy rate continues to climb as we head into the final months of 2024. The leasing rebound seen in the second half of last year has diminished in 2024. The first quarter of 2024 was the weakest for office take-up in three years, with only a slight improvement recorded in the second quarter. Demand losses, measured by net absorption, have accelerated this year after easing in 2023. Coupled with a wave of new office completions, this has pushed vacancy rates upwards. London’s current vacancy rate stands at 10.1%, a 20-year high, up from around 5% at the onset of the pandemic, though still significantly below the 14% level seen in New York.

Vacancies are expected to rise further in the coming months, with more new supply arriving in an environment of subdued demand. Around 16.6 million square feet are currently under construction in London, nearing a record high. As tenants gain more options, average rents are likely to fall accordingly.

The market is increasingly polarised by building quality and location. Net absorption in London’s top-tier, 5-Star office buildings has remained strongly positive in recent quarters, with all the demand losses over the past four years occurring in buildings rated 4-Star or lower. Availability in this prime segment fell to a three-year low in Q2 2024. Hedge fund Citadel and accountancy firm BDO have recently signed major pre-lets in the City and West End, as larger firms resume space decisions after a slow start to the year. Rents have held up better in these higher-rated buildings as well, with several record rents being achieved in newly completed buildings near the Elizabeth Line stations at Bond Street and Farringdon in recent months.

Modern, high-quality buildings are expected to continue attracting demand, as companies upgrade their spaces to attract staff and meet growing environmental commitments, even if overall space requirements are reduced. For example, banking giant HSBC will cut its office footprint by half after pre-leasing 556,000 square feet in the City. On a submarket level, the West End is performing best, while submarkets in Docklands and west London are facing double-digit vacancy rates. GSK recently vacated its 690,000-square-foot building in west London, relocating to a space a quarter of that size in Covent Garden.

The investment market is gradually picking up after annual volumes slumped to a 19-year low in 2023. Deal activity is heavily concentrated at the smaller end of the market. For the first time this century, there were no deals over £100 million in the City of London during the first half of 2024. However, yields for stabilised prime offices appear to have peaked, with expectations of further interest rate cuts. This is likely to spur more activity in the coming months, with the number of buildings under offer rising sharply in early autumn, according to market participants.

London’s office investment market remains subdued, with the first half of 2024 marking one of the weakest periods on record. High borrowing costs and an ongoing pricing disconnect between buyers and sellers have weighed heavily on activity, particularly for larger deals. Notably, there were no transactions over £100 million in the City of London during the first half of the year—an unprecedented occurrence in a half-year period this century. Over the past 12 months, just £4.8 billion has been spent on London offices, significantly below the 10-year annual average of £15.3 billion. Most market observers do not anticipate a meaningful recovery in investment activity before late 2024, at the earliest.

Yields have stabilised following a roughly 100-basis-point rise during the downturn. Expectations of interest rate cuts in the latter half of the year should provide further support for pricing and deal activity, although such hopes have delayed some transactions. Two major sales have been paused as owners reconsider their options, anticipating a price recovery later in the year. Receivers halted the cut-price £110 million sale of 5 Churchill Place in Docklands, while Korea’s Mirae also pulled its planned £240 million sale of 20 Old Bailey in the City.

Signs of pricing adjustment for prime office properties in central areas can be seen in two significant deals near Farringdon Station. In late 2023, UBS Asset Management acquired Bloom Clerkenwell for £230 million at a 5.3% yield, approximately 100 basis points higher than the yield for the nearby Kaleidoscope Farringdon, which sold a year earlier. Pricing appears more resilient at the lower end of the market, where there is a larger pool of buyers. A private Spanish investor recently bought 8 Bleeding Heart Yard, near Farringdon Station, from Seaforth Land for £52 million, achieving a relatively strong 4.3% yield.

Many of the larger recent transactions have centred on value-add or redevelopment opportunities, with equity-rich investors taking advantage of falling prices and reduced competition from leveraged buyers, anticipating the "flight-to-quality" trend will persist in the next cycle. A notable deal in December 2023 saw developers Edge and Mitsubishi pay £148 million for a prime redevelopment opportunity on Shaftesbury Avenue—well below the asking price of £180 million and the previous sale price of £267 million in 2018.

Opportunistic investments have also targeted the vibrant West End submarkets of Noho and Soho, particularly around the new Elizabeth Line stations. A key sale late last year involved Lothbury and Japan’s Nomura purchasing a 50% stake in M&G’s The Fitzrovia development in a £180 million forward-funding transaction, reflecting increased interest from Japanese investors in London real estate. West End properties have generally retained their value better than those in other parts of London, particularly compared to areas west of London and in Docklands, where high vacancy rates have pushed yields beyond 10%.

Properties with conversion potential have also been in demand. The Whitbread Group recently acquired New London House for £56.5 million with plans to convert it into a hotel. Diageo’s former headquarters in Park Royal was purchased for hotel conversion in May 2024. In March, Royal London committed £192.5 million to redevelop the vacant 1 Triton Square in Noho into a life sciences building with British Land.

Beyond central and parts of west London, the focus remains on office-to-residential conversion opportunities.

 

 

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